Putting case numbers into context: only 0.7% of swab tests last week resulted positive
- Posted by S@gW0rPr3@dm1n
- On June 2, 2020
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A comparison between the number of swab tests carried out and the number of new cases of Covid-19 shows that over the past week, in spite of an increase in cases, only 0.7% of the swabs taken were positive – a figure much lower than in the earlier stages of the pandemic, statistician Vincent Marmara told The Malta Independent on Sunday.
The number of new positive cases increased again in the last two weeks as measures began to be relaxed, prompting fears of a second wave of the virus.
However, Marmara pointed out that while the number of new cases this week is equivalent to the number of new cases found in the third week of the pandemic, these numbers need to be understood with the context of how many swab tests are being carried out.
He pointed out how over the past week, over 10,000 swab tests were done. In the third and fourth week of the pandemic, the number of swab tests being done was approximately half that – at around 5,000.
Therefore, when one takes the percentage of the weekly positive cases against the weekly number of swabs, it shows a percentage which was initially quite high – peaking at over 4% between the second and third week of the pandemic – and then dropping to a rate of 0.3% between the eighth and ninth week.
The figure now has again started to increase, but it currently stands at 0.7%. This effectively means, that only 0.7% of those who were swabbed in the past week tested positive for the virus.
“Even if we are in another wave, it is flatter when compared to the first wave”, Marmara said.
“Any wave can be kept flat; it is all dependent on following the social distancing guidelines recommended by health authorities”, he said.
He noted that even if restrictions are relaxed, it remains imperative to follow these measures, noting that only by having everyone play their part can we keep the curve down and live a bit of a less restricted life while keeping the pandemic as controlled as possible.
Report: Albert Galea, Date: 24th May 2020
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